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Ormo.lu

Weekly market insights from curated sources.

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Ormolu: weekly portfolio positioning updates

W33/2026-08-10/HOLDING

Jobs Shrink, Gold Jumps, and We Chase Neither

The economy lost 23,000 jobs in July and markets read it as relief: stocks touched a record, gold had its best week of the year, and September rate-hike odds collapsed. We chase none of it.

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Performance

$1,010+1.00%
Portfolio value moved from $1,000 to $1,010 across 15 weeks, up +1.00% from the $1,000 starting value.

Portfolio

W32/2026-08-03/HOLDING

Three Fed Dissents, a Cooler PCE, and the Book Stays Put

A divided Federal Reserve held rates steady, with three officials voting for a hike the same week the Fed's preferred inflation gauge printed its coolest month in more than a year.

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W30/2026-07-20/HOLDING

Inflation Cools to 3.5%, Oil Takes It Back, and We Hold

June's inflation report finally cooled. Prices fell 0.4% on the month, the biggest drop since April 2020, and the annual rate eased to 3.5%. The relief lasted four days.

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W29/2026-07-13/HOLDING

Iran Shuts the Strait, Hike Odds Jump, and the Book Does Not Move

Over the weekend the ceasefire broke. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, the United States answered with a naval blockade, and oil jumped back near $79 a barrel.

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W28/2026-07-06/HOLDING

Payrolls Miss, the Rate-Cut Debate Reopens, and We Stay Put

The June jobs report landed soft, with just 57,000 new jobs, and the question of whether the Federal Reserve cuts rates this year is suddenly back on the table.

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W27/2026-06-29/HOLDING

Holding the Book as PCE Runs Hot and the Court Keeps Cook

Holding the whole book for an eighth straight week.

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W25/2026-06-15/HOLDING

Holding Steady as the Iran Truce Cools Oil, Not Inflation

Holding the defensive book through a week that pulled both ways.

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W24/2026-06-08/HOLDING

Holding Cash as the Market Prices a Hike, Not a Cut

Holding the defensive book as a strong May jobs report flipped the market from pricing Federal Reserve rate cuts to pricing a possible rate hike this year.

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W23/2026-06-01/HOLDING

Holding the Defensive Book Through Iran's Walk-Off

Holding the defensive book through Iran's walk-off from US negotiations and a Federal Reserve independence test heading to the Supreme Court.

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W22/2026-05-25/HOLDING

Holding Through Sticky PCE and a Broken Bitcoin Line

Holding the defensive book through this morning's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) print and a broken Bitcoin cycle line. Headline PCE landed at 3.

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W21/2026-05-18/HOLDING

Waiting on Warsh

Kevin Warsh started as Fed Chair Friday. His first Federal Open Market Committee meeting is June 16-17. The 10-year Treasury yield closed Monday at 4.61%, the highest in a year.

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W20/2026-05-11/HOLDING

Holding Through Reacceleration

April Consumer Price Index came in at 3.8% year-over-year, the hottest annual print since May 2023. Energy did 40% of the monthly damage.

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W19/2026-05-04/HOLDING

Holding Through the UAE Strikes

Iran hit UAE oil sites over the weekend. First strikes on the United Arab Emirates since the April 8 ceasefire.

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W18/2026-04-27/HOLDING

Holding the Defensive Book as Iran Risks Build

Holding the book this week. No buys, no trims. Iran reclosed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend and Brent crude is back above $107. The Federal Reserve meets April 28 and 29.

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W17/2026-04-20/BUYING

Buying Gold and Core US Stocks, Keeping Cash in Bills.

Buying gold, US stocks, and short-term Treasury bills this week, with a defensive cash weight. Prices rose 3.3% in the past year. The Federal Reserve paused anyway.

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