Payrolls Miss, the Rate-Cut Debate Reopens, and We Stay Put
·Held every position. The June jobs report landed soft, with just 57,000 new jobs, and the question of whether the Federal Reserve…
Performance
As of 2026-07-06 · 11 weeks tracked
Total return
-1.10%
-$11 on $1,000
vs S&P 500
-7.10%
SPY +6.00%
Max drawdown
-4.04%
peak-to-trough
Decisions made
11
over 11 weeks
Current book
6
positions held now
01 / Equity curve
Marked to market, every week.
$1,000 deployed at start, rebalanced each Monday. Benchmarks held passively.
| Week | Ormo | SPY | 60/40 | Cash | Gold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | $1,000 | $1,000 | $1,000 | $1,000 | $1,000 |
| 2026-04-27 | $999 | $1,009 | $1,004 | $1,001 | $977 |
| 2026-05-04 | $996 | $1,013 | $1,003 | $998 | $948 |
| 2026-05-11 | $1,016 | $1,043 | $1,022 | $999 | $983 |
| 2026-05-18 | $1,002 | $1,042 | $1,018 | $999 | $948 |
| 2026-05-25 | $1,005 | $1,052 | $1,026 | $1,000 | $943 |
| 2026-06-01 | $1,005 | $1,070 | $1,038 | $999 | $944 |
| 2026-06-08 | $981 | $1,043 | $1,019 | $999 | $900 |
| 2026-06-15 | $992 | $1,065 | $1,035 | $999 | $901 |
| 2026-06-29 | $975 | $1,046 | $1,025 | $1,000 | $871 |
| 2026-07-06 | $989 | $1,060 | $1,033 | $1,000 | $887 |
Ormo-1.10%SPY+6.00%60/40+3.29%
02 / Decisions
What we did, week by week.
Newest first. Every change to the book: opened, closed, resized.
Holding the Book as PCE Runs Hot and the Court Keeps Cook
·Held every position. Holding the whole book for an eighth straight week.
Holding Steady as the Iran Truce Cools Oil, Not Inflation
·Held every position. Holding the defensive book through a week that pulled both ways.
Holding Cash as the Market Prices a Hike, Not a Cut
·Held every position. Holding the defensive book as a strong May jobs report flipped the market from pricing Federal Reserve rate…
Holding the Defensive Book Through Iran's Walk-Off
·Held every position. Holding the defensive book through Iran's walk-off from US negotiations and a Federal Reserve independence…
Holding Through Sticky PCE and a Broken Bitcoin Line
·Held every position. Holding the defensive book through this morning's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) print and a broken…
Waiting on Warsh
·Held every position. Kevin Warsh started as Fed Chair Friday.
Holding Through Reacceleration
·Held every position. April Consumer Price Index came in at 3.8% year-over-year, the hottest annual print since May 2023.
Holding Through the UAE Strikes
·Held every position. Iran hit UAE oil sites over the weekend.
Holding the Defensive Book as Iran Risks Build
·Held every position. Holding the book this week.
Buying Gold and Core US Stocks, Keeping Cash in Bills.
+ OpenedVOO, VWO, GLD, SLV, BTC, BIL
03 / Risk & book
Drawdown over time, and what we held.
The portfolio's worst stretch and how the book shifted week to week.
Underwater curve
| Week | Drawdown |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | 0.00% |
| 2026-04-27 | -0.10% |
| 2026-05-04 | -0.40% |
| 2026-05-11 | 0.00% |
| 2026-05-18 | -1.38% |
| 2026-05-25 | -1.08% |
| 2026-06-01 | -1.08% |
| 2026-06-08 | -3.44% |
| 2026-06-15 | -2.36% |
| 2026-06-29 | -4.04% |
| 2026-07-06 | -2.66% |
Allocation, % of book
| Week | US Treasury bills | S&P 500 (US large-cap stocks) | Gold | Emerging-market stocks | Bitcoin | Silver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | 40.0% | 27.0% | 13.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| 2026-04-27 | 40.0% | 27.0% | 13.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| 2026-05-04 | 40.0% | 27.0% | 13.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| 2026-05-11 | 40.0% | 27.0% | 13.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| 2026-05-18 | 40.0% | 27.0% | 13.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| 2026-05-25 | 40.0% | 27.0% | 13.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| 2026-06-01 | 40.0% | 27.0% | 13.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| 2026-06-08 | 40.0% | 27.0% | 13.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| 2026-06-15 | 40.0% | 27.0% | 13.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| 2026-06-29 | 40.0% | 27.0% | 13.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| 2026-07-06 | 40.0% | 27.0% | 13.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% |
BILVOOGLDVWOBTCSLV
Methodology
Returns assume $1,000 deployed at the start date and rebalanced each Monday to that week's stated book. Prices are end-of-week close. No fees or taxes are modelled.
We do not grade individual calls. Some theses resolve in weeks (a tactical hedge), others over a year or more (a structural rotation into gold or emerging markets). Picking one window to judge them all forces unlike calls into a single frame and creates more noise than signal. The equity curve above, marked weekly against passive benchmarks, is the only judgement that does not lie.
Benchmarks: SPY for United States equities, a 60/40 mix of SPY and the Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) bought once and not rebalanced, BIL for one-to-three month Treasury bills (cash), and GLD for gold. All four are price-only (dividends and other distributions are not counted) and held passively from the start date.